In the beginning of January last year we made a post about what we predicted will happen in 2009.
2009 is now over. Here is a look back to the predictions and how well we did.
1. The dollar will fall 20% or more against the Chinese yuan.
Verdict: WRONG! The Chinese yuan has staid on the same level in regards to the dollar thanks to the Chinese policy of keeping it fixed to the US dollar (+ some other currencies).
2. The price of gold will be up 10% by the end of the year.
Verdict: WRONG! The price of gold is up 23.4% in 2009. This means that jumped well over the 10% we predicted.
3. The price of oil will stay between 40 and 60 dollars for the most of the year and will rise to as high as 75 dollars/barrel by the end of 2009.
Verdict: CORRECT! The price of oil climbed gradually throughout the year but managed to stay in the 40 to 60 dollars range all the way from January to July. The end of the year saw oil prices rise as high as $79.
4. The Dow Jones Industrial Average will be up about 15%.
Verdict: CORRECT! The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 19% in 2009. That’s close enough!
5. The world economy will not recover from the financial crisis by the end of 2009.
Verdict: CORRECT! Unemployment rates are the highest in decades. The real estate bubble has not bounced back. The economies of the world are still weak.
6. There will not be any more major bank failures. We will possibly see governments taking proactive steps to save banks and other major companies before they are in actual trouble.
Verdict: CORRECT! Following the failings of 3 major banks in 2008 we have not had any major bank fail in 2009. All the large banks and insurance companies have been saved by the government before they went under. There have however been a large number of smaller banks that have failed and that have not been saved that remain mostly unknown to the public.
7. None of the three big US auto companies will fail in 2009.
Verdict: CORRECT! Despite fears in 2008 and the beginning of 2009 – Ford, General Motors and Chrysler are all here!
8. The housing market does not bounce back.
Verdict: CORRECT! The housing market is down and it doesn’t look like it will bounce back any time soon.
9. Inflation in the US rises.
Verdict: WRONG! According to official figures the inflation plummeted from 3.8% in 2008 to 1.8% in 2009. The USA has however changed how it used to calculate inflation. Using the old method it should be around the 10% figure.
10. Obama’s stimulus package passes in his first months in office.
Verdict: CORRECT! The controversial 800 billion dollar stimulus package was passed in February 2010.
11. More bailout money will be needed by large companies.
Verdict: CORRECT! Bank of America received an additional 20 billion dollar loan in January 2009 in addition to the 25 billion dollars that bailed them out in October 2008.
12. US economy will not come out of recession.
Verdict: FALSE! The 3rd quarter of 2009 was the first quarter in more than a year that saw economic growth in the US. That means that officially the recession is over. In reality however unemployment rates are highest in decades, consumer fears are still rising and people are saying that it is still a recession.
13. There will be an assassination attempt on Barack Obama. If you won’t hear about it, it is because it will be kept secret.
Verdict: CORRECT! Obviously! Could it have been any other way?
14. Apple will launch a smaller version of the iPhone.
Verdict: FALSE! Although we saw the iPhone 3G S, we are still waiting for a smaller and cooler model. Odds are that we will be waiting for a long time…
15. Financial Jesus will end the year with more than 1000 subscribers.
Verdict: FALSE! 2008 started with a whopping 119 subscribers and ended with 469. We were about 500 users too short.
9 out of 15. That is pretty decent if you ask me!
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